If a quality candidate challenges Tillis in 2020 and the Democratic Presidential nominee inspires millennials and post-millennials to vote in large numbers, his seat will be in jeopardy.

Polling performed last year by the Morning Consult shows Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) is only 3 percentage points above water among North Carolina voters. 37 percent of voters approve of his job as Senator, while 34 percent disapprove of him. Tillis is up for re-election in 2020 and a new survey from Public Policy Polling shows the partial government shutdown may create further electoral issues for the sitting Senator.

What New Polling Shows

The liberal advocacy group MoveOn commissioned the poll and sent the following press release to journalists:

New Poll: Government Shutdown Hurting Senator Tillis’ Support; North Carolina Voters Oppose Trump Declaring National Emergency 

“NORTH CAROLINA – A new poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP), commissioned by MoveOn, shows the government shutdown demanded by President Donald Trump and supported by Congressional Republicans is hurting Sen. Thom Tillis’ support among North Carolina voters. The poll shows that North Carolina voters oppose Donald Trump’s and the Republicans’ wall and want Congress to vote to re-open the government without any funding for the wall.

The poll also showed that sticking with Donald Trump on the shutdown makes voters less likely to vote for Tillis in 2020.

Additionally, voters polled in North Carolina were also asked if they would oppose President Trump’s plan to declare a national emergency to build the wall by diverting funds from other government agencies. Voters in North Carolina overwhelmingly opposed the plan.

Additional findings from the poll:

• More than half of North Carolinians disagree with President Trump that the government should be kept closed until he gets funding for the wall.
• More than half of North Carolinians oppose President Trump’s demand that Congress spend billions in taxpayer dollars to build a wall along the southern border.
• Nearly half of North Carolinians are less likely to support Tillis in his next election because of his support for President Trump’s plan to keep the government closed if he doesn’t get funding for a border wall.

You can see the full polling memo here: https://front.moveon.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/NorthCarolinaResults1.pdf

“Voters in North Carolina, like voters across the country, reject Donald Trump’s wall and want the government to re-open immediately,” said Emma Einhorn from MoveOn Political Action. “This poll should be a clear sign to Sen. Tillis that if he continues to walk the plank for Donald Trump and his deeply unpopular policies, he puts his re-election at risk. The message is clear: re-open the government now without funding the wall and end this outrageous exercise.””

The most alarming aspect of the survey for Tillis is how North Carolina citizens responded to the “Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Thom Tillis’s job performance?” 34 percent said they approve of his performance while 40 percent said they disapprove, with the remaining 26 percent ‘not sure’ of how the Senator is doing.

Is Tillis In Trouble?

Public Policy Polling receives a ‘B’ grade from FiveThirtyEight, meaning that is seen to be in the upper tier of polling firms, but one step below the best. If a quality candidate challenges Tillis in 2020 and the Democratic Presidential nominee inspires millennials and post-millennials to vote in large numbers, his seat will be in jeopardy.