The Wave of Roses: Randy Bryce Could Take Paul Ryan’s Seat
The Wave Of Roses is a Citizen Truth series which highlights progressive candidates and organizations which challenge corporate Third Way control of the Democratic Party. This entry looks at key United States House of Representatives races for the reignited movement in the United States. This entry showcases Randy “IronStache” Bryce who could take the US Congressional seat being vacated by Paul Ryan.
“…I’m looking forward to getting an F rating from them [National Rifle Association],” Randy Bryce said on an October 24th interview on The Young Turks network, Rebel HQ program. “…I’m going to repeal and replace him [Paul Ryan],” he stated later in the interview, discussing Paul Ryan who announced he wasn’t going to seek re-election in the first district of Wisconsin after polling poorly against the democratic candidate.
Bryce, a United States Army Veteran, is running on a staunch Social Democratic platform supporting legislation for Universal Healthcare, tuition-free public universities, criminal justice reform, a path to citizenship, and mandatory background checks on gun sales. Earning him endorsements from Justice Democrats, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA), and former President Barack Obama.
Bryce is running against Republican Social Conservative Bryan Steil and Independent Ken Yorgan. According to the FiveThirtyEight model, Bryce and Steil are in a close race — despite their analysis that Steil is extremely likely to win the general election on November 6.
Change Research published a memo detailing their findings based on the October 22nd poll.
The early October poll found that Bryce had yet to fully consolidate Democrats’ support: 8 percent were still undecided, compared to 3 percent of Republicans. Two weeks later, that story has flipped. The number of undecided Democrats is down to 5 percent, while Republicans’ support for their candidate is wavering considerably: 12 percent of Republicans are now undecided, and another 6 percent support Bryce. Meanwhile, Bryce has surged among independents. Two weeks ago, Steil held a 39-28 lead among independents who’d made up their mind, but undecided independents were 13 points more likely to lean toward Bryce. The latter statistic appears to have been a harbinger, as Bryce now leads Steil among independents, 45-35.
Later the firm detailed what could be the most important aspect of the race for Bryce.
Bryce is also the beneficiary of an enthusiasm gap between the two parties: 93% of Democrats say they’ll definitely vote, compared to 88% of Republicans. And 73% of Democrats say they’re more interested in this election than previous midterms, versus 67% of Republicans who say the same. The enthusiasm gap is already evident in the early vote tallies: of the 5% who have already voted, Bryce leads 51-36.
Cook Partisan Voter Index rates the WI-1st R+5, making the enthusiasm extremely important, however, Bryce will need to turn out non-likely voters to overcome Steil. While the early vote totals are showing a trend nationwide, Bryce is going to need favorable voters in his district to turnout. His victory would mean the progressive movement would have a strong voice in Congress, who could help others win elections in 2020 and beyond.