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ANALYSIS EUROPE

With Brexit Deadline Just Days Away, Second Referendum Now More Likely

Brexit Protest (Photo by Leo London)
Brexit Protest (Photo by Leo London)
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of Citizen Truth.)

If a second referendum comes to pass, the result will again likely be decided by the turnout of younger and older citizens of the UK

On Monday, members of the Parliament of the United Kingdom (UK) of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Westminister Parliament) rejected four alternative plans relating to the chaotic Brexit strategy, which has become an unpopular ordeal pertaining to the UK’s sedated decamping from the European Union (EU). The latest hurdle has tied the legacies of both Brexit and Prime Minister Theresa May [Conservatives] together in the annals of UK politics.

Citizen Truth reported on May’s situation in December after an internal no-confidence vote was called against her leadership of the Conservative party, where she survived by a 200-117 margin. The following month, May would survive a no-confidence vote triggered by the opposing Social Democratic Labour party. While escaping with a narrow 325-306 victory, Prime Minister May came no closer to successfully guiding the UK through Brexit.

Newest Brexit Developments

On Friday reports began circulating of Prime Minister May penning a formal Brexit delay request to current EU Council President, Donald Tusk. At the present day, the UK is set to leave the EU on April 12th — despite an exit deal not being agreed upon.

According to sources speaking to CNN the proposed June 30th extension date doesn’t have much public support from EU members. “France, which has taken a firmer line over Britain’s demands, floated the idea of offering only a two-week extension, in order to prepare financial markets for Britain leaving the EU without a negotiated deal,” read the reporting. According to sources, Germany took a softer; yet skeptical approach. “The other option, floated by Germany, was to demand more information from May, in order to justify offering a longer extension.”

Tusk is said to have offered a proposal dubbed a “flextension,” which included a year-long extension to the Brexit proceedings in the UK that could be canceled once an agreement was agreed upon. The Council President added the caveat of such an extension being offered if Prime Minister May would present the EU with a strategy to show there is a pathway out from the current gridlock.

“We want the talks to continue and we’ve written in those terms to the government, but we do need change if we’re going to compromise,” said shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer [Labour] to British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reporters, regarding the Conservatives refusal to change the ‘actual wording’ of a new House of Commons proposal. The current rush revolves around the emergency EU summit on Wednesday of next week to discuss Brexit and the April 12th deadline.

A Second Referendum Now More Likely

“Talks between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May will break down if Labour insists on putting any compromise deal to a confirmatory referendum, government sources have said,” a Friday report by The Guardian began. “At the same time Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, has warned of a Labour rebellion if Corbyn agrees to a deal without such a vote.”

“The Conservative side is privately confident that no overall Commons majority can be reached for any amendment calling for a second referendum,” the reporting would continue. While Prime Minister May and the Conservatives at large may be against a second referendum, another vote is beginning to present itself as a more likely occurrence. Analysis from Luke McGee of CNN adds insight into the situation.

MPs voted — by a majority of just one vote — in favor of something called the Cooper Bill, that takes a no-deal Brexit off the table for good, by making it illegal in British law. This could have the (probably unintended) consequence of making a second referendum inevitable.

“It’s very late in the day to vote on alternatives without adequate scrutiny. Parliament needs to be given the space to properly look at these options to avoid a blind Brexit and commit to putting any Brexit deal back to the people,” McGee was told by People’s Vote campaigner, Tom Brufatto.

Protests in favor of a second referendum have been happening throughout the UK for several months. However, rallies at the end of March garnered an estimated 1 million citizens in favor of allowing voters to have another say in the Brexit process. The original June 2016 Brexit vote resulted in a 51.9 – 48.1 victory for those in favor of leaving the EU.

BBC provided key voting demographic breakdowns from the referendum.

Just over 70% of 18 to 24-year-olds who voted in the referendum backed Remain, four major academic and commercial polls conducted shortly after the ballot agree, with just under 30% backing Leave.In contrast, only 40% of those aged 65 and over supported Remain, while 60% placed their cross against Leave.

The election came down to higher turnout among older voters than younger, “The results found that 64% of those young people who were registered did vote, rising to 65% among 25-to-39-year-olds and 66% among those aged between 40 and 54. It increased to 74% among the 55-to-64 age group and 90% for those aged 65 and over,” The Guardian reported in July 2016.

If a second referendum comes to pass, the result will again likely be decided by the turnout of younger and older citizens of the UK.

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Walter Yeates

Walter Yeates is a journalist, novelist, and screenwriter who embedded at Standing Rock with military Veterans and First People in December 2016. He covers a range of topics at Citizen Truth and is open for tips and suggestions. Twitter: www.twitter.com/GentlemansHall or www.twitter.com/SmoothJourno Muckrack: https://muckrack.com/walteryeates

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1 Comment

  1. YULI April 16, 2019

    arliament needs to be given the space to properly look at these options to avoid a blind Brexit and commit to putting any Brexit deal back to the people

    Reply

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